QXO TARGETS
$6.8 billion in, $43 billion to go
QXO enters the 2026 HBSDealer Top 150 at no. 11 with $6.842 billion in FY2025 sales and 610 branches — assembled, per the list's own note, out of Beacon, Kodiak Building Partners and TopBuild. The stated destination is a $50 billion building-products distributor. This page takes that ambition literally, points it at the other 149 companies on the list, and asks which ones are actually buyable.
The arithmetic is the whole story. The Top 150 sums to $433.8 billion, but $250.9 billion of that is Home Depot and Lowe's — retail, not distribution, and not for sale. Strip those two and the entire rest of the industry's leaderboard is $182.9 billion.
The tail can't close the gap
Take every company ranked 20 through 150 that sells to the pro channel (DIY ≤10% of sales) — that's 72 companies — and buy all of them. Combined revenue: $11.3 billion. Roughly seventy separate closings, an integration nightmare, and QXO would still be $32 billion short. The screen below therefore doesn't ask "who's acquirable." It asks who moves the number.
What the first three deals reveal
Beacon (roofing/exterior distribution), Kodiak Building Partners (multi-region building products) and TopBuild (insulation) aren't a random basket. Read backwards, they define a target profile with four hard edges.
The fourth edge is the one that eliminates most of the leaderboard. This industry is overwhelmingly family-held: of the 150 companies, 108 are lumber & building-material dealers, most of them multi-generational and structurally uninterested in a sale at any price.
150 → 8, in four cuts
Cut 1 · Wrong channel
Drop anything with meaningful DIY exposure. QXO sells to contractors; a hardware chain's 90% DIY mix is a different business with different economics, different working capital and different buyers.
Cut 2 · Too small to matter
Below $1 billion, a deal is a rounding error against a $43 billion gap. Sub-scale names stay interesting as bolt-ons to Beacon's branch map (section 05) but not as strategy.
Cut 3 · Adjacency test
What's left has to plug into exteriors, structural or specialty distribution. Fastenal clears scale and channel but sells industrial fasteners and MRO through vending machines — a different customer entirely.
Cut 4 · Can it be bought?
The survivors get scored, not eliminated — because willingness is the variable that moves. A family that won't sell in 2026 may sell on a succession event in 2029.
The eight, scored
Four axes, 0–5 each. Scale: does it close the gap. Channel: pro distribution vs. retail. Adjacency: fit with roofing/exteriors/insulation. Dealability: can ownership actually transact. Composite out of 20 — these scores are this page's judgment, not anyone's guidance.
| Target | FY25 Sales | Units | DIY | Scale | Chan | Adj | Deal | Composite |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Builders FirstSource | $15.19B | 580 | 8% | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 17 |
| US LBM Holdings | $6.80B | 449 | 5% | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 17 |
| ABC Supply | $21.20B | 1,119 | 1% | 5 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 16 |
| Lansing Building Products | $1.55B | 118 | 0% | 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 16 |
| Richards Building Supply | $1.06B | 62 | 0% | 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 16 |
| Ferguson | $31.32B | 1,746 | 10% | 5 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| Carter Lumber | $2.73B | 185 | 5% | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 13 |
| 84 Lumber | $6.00B | 320 | 5% | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
Tier A · The deals that would actually do it
The most plausible transformative deal on the board, and the cheapest one relative to what it delivers. BFS is publicly traded with no controlling family, it came into 2026 down 7.4% on soft single-family starts, and it brings 580 locations plus manufacturing (trusses, wall panels, millwork) that would extend QXO from distribution into value-add fabrication. A depressed cyclical with a liquid float is exactly the kind of asset a serial acquirer buys at the bottom of a housing cycle rather than the top.
Read · highest-probability path to a $20B+ QXO
The cleanest process deal. US LBM has been private-equity owned (Bain Capital) since 2020 — well past a normal hold period — with 449 locations and the worst top-line print of any large dealer on the list (−12.8%). Sponsors sell; families don't. A single signature would roughly double QXO's revenue and hand it a national LBM footprint to cross-sell Beacon's exterior products into.
Read · most likely to come to market on its own
Strategically perfect and practically unavailable — the highest fit score and the lowest dealability on the board. ABC is the mirror image of Beacon: 1,119 branches, 1% DIY, roofing and siding to contractors. It is also Diane Hendricks' company, privately held and repeatedly declared not for sale, and a combination with Beacon would invite an antitrust review that neither party needs. Worth noting only because the fit is so exact that any change in ABC's ownership posture re-rates the entire sector.
Read · the prize that isn't for sale
Clears scale and channel emphatically — 1,746 branches of pure pro distribution — but it's plumbing and HVAC, a different end market from the building envelope, and at $31 billion of revenue it is larger than the company trying to buy it. That's a merger of equals or nothing. File under "the direction of travel," not "the next deal": Ferguson is what a finished QXO is supposed to look like.
Read · the destination, not the target
Tier B · The ones that fit the strategy exactly
If you drew the ideal Beacon bolt-on from scratch you'd draw Lansing: a specialty distributor of exterior products — siding, windows, roofing — with 0% DIY and 118 branches across 35 states, still growing in a down market. Privately held, which is the only obstacle. Small enough to be a bolt-on, big enough to matter, and the branch overlap with Beacon is the good kind: dense enough to consolidate, wide enough to fill gaps.
Read · the single best strategic fit at a digestible size
The same argument one notch smaller: a family-run roofing and siding distributor that went from eight locations to 62 across 14 states, 0% DIY, growing. Direct overlap with Beacon in the Midwest and Northeast — which cuts both ways, since overlap is where synergies live and where a family owner's leverage disappears.
Read · pure exteriors, pure pro, pure bolt-on
Both are large enough to move the needle and both are family fortresses — Carter since 1932, 84 Lumber under the Hardy family since 1956. Neither has any reason to sell, and 84's scale means any deal would be a landmark rather than a transaction. They're on the board because scale plus pro-channel mix is rare enough that a succession event at either would immediately become the industry's biggest story.
Read · watch the cap table, not the pipeline
The branch-map fill-ins
These don't move QXO toward $50 billion — they make Beacon denser. Sub-$500 million, pro-channel, exterior or specialty distribution, in regions where a branch map has holes. Cheap, fast, and the kind of deal a roll-up closes four at a time.
| # | Company | HQ | Sales | Δ | Units | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 39 | Erie Materials | Syracuse, N.Y. | $319M | +1.2% | 10 | Top exterior-products distributor in the Northeast; 2% DIY. Textbook Beacon tuck-in. |
| 36 | Shelter Products | Portland, Ore. | $340M | −3.5% | 6 | Six-state wholesale distribution, tiny branch count — buy the book, not the buildings. |
| 58 | Western Pacific Building Materials | Vancouver, Wash. | $205M | +0.1% | 8 | 0% DIY specialty distributor; Pacific Northwest coverage where Beacon is thinnest. |
| 54 | Stark Truss | Canton, Ohio | $217M | +29.2% | 14 | Fastest-growing component manufacturer on the list. Value-add capacity, not distribution. |
| 101 | Advantage Lumber | Sarasota, Fla. | $103M | +6.0% | 4 | Specialty decking/hardwood distributor, 0% DIY, growing in the strongest housing state. |
| 108 | HT Building Products | Dallas, Texas | $93M | +76.3% | 2 | Fastest grower in the entire 150. Small, but that trajectory gets a call. |
| 111 | Southeast Building Supply Interests | Warner Robins, Ga. | $87M | −16.3% | 10 | Ten locations, sharply down — distress pricing in a growth region. |
Why two-thirds of the list is noise
What would tell you first
- A BFS stake filing. Jacobs' Beacon approach began with public accumulation and a hostile bid. A 13D in a large public dealer is the loudest possible signal.
- Bain shopping US LBM. Sponsor exits leak through bank mandates months before they price. The −12.8% print argues for waiting; the hold period argues against.
- Any Lansing or Richards succession event. Both are private, both are exactly the right shape, and both would trade quickly once a family decides.
- QXO issuing equity. The gap to $50 billion is $43 billion of revenue — that isn't financed out of cash flow. Watch the balance sheet for the size of the next swing.
- Silence. If nothing above happens, the base case is four to six bolt-ons a year at $100–500M of revenue each — which gets to $50 billion sometime after the next housing cycle, not during it.